A. Gylling, M. Ekstedt, Z. Afzal, and P. Eliasson, “Mapping cyber threat intelligence to probabilistic attack graphs”, 2021 IEEE International Conference on Cyber Security and Resilience, July 2021. (Best research paper award). A summary of the paper can be found here.
The paper is based on the Master Thesis of Andreas Gylling, and can be found here.